Physical link of the polar field buildup with the Waldmeier effect broadens the scope of early solar cycle prediction: Cycle 25 is likely to be slightly stronger than Cycle 24
نویسندگان
چکیده
Prediction of the solar cycle is challenging but essential because it drives space weather. Several predictions with varying amplitudes ongoing Cycle~25 have been made. We show that an aspect Waldmeier effect (WE2), i.e., a strong positive correlation between rise rate and amplitude cycle, has physical link build-up previous cycle's polar field after its reversal. find highly correlated next cycle. Thus, prediction can be made just few years reversal field, thereby extending scope to much earlier than usual time. Our Cycle 25 based on $137\pm 23$, which quite close $138\pm 26$ WE2 computed from available 2 sunspot data
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ژورنال
عنوان ژورنال: Monthly Notices of the Royal Astronomical Society: Letters
سال: 2022
ISSN: ['1745-3925', '1745-3933']
DOI: https://doi.org/10.1093/mnrasl/slac043